Impact of climate change on diseases of oilseed rape on the rural economy

Emily Measures, University of Warwick

Link: Growing risk? The potential impact of plant disease on land use and the UK rural economy

The aim of this project is to develop a critical interdisciplinary appraisal of the potential impacts of climate change on diseases of oilseed rape and the consequential impacts on rural communities and land use.

Component objectives include:
> Creation of a project framework based on a review of CSL datasets for EC listed diseases of oilseed rape
> Assess risks of disease outbreaks as a consequence of climate change including extreme weather events
> Examine the economic, environmental and community impacts of disease outbreaks, taking account of alternative management strategies, on individual stakeholders and community behaviour.
> Provide an overall evaluation and a generic framework for taking a holistic approach to risk analysis, regulation and governance in relation to oilseed rape disease epidemics

BACKGROUND
UK crop production and the natural environment are vulnerable to the intentional or non-intentional introduction of plant diseases that would directly affect crop yield, disrupt the food chain, impact on social infrastructure and perturb our natural environment. There are several examples of well documented catastrophic plant disease epidemics on a global scale in the 19th and early 20th century. There are also numerous less catastrophic examples of UK epidemics in the 20th century which have resulted in extreme changes in agricultural practices, loss of key plant varieties, changes in the balance of international trade and in some instances drastic changes to our environment (e.g. Dutch Elm disease).

Current climate models predict that global temperatures could increase from between 1.4 to 5.8°C over the next 100 years. For the UK, climate change means warmer temperatures, wetter winters and drier summers, less snow and increased risk of flooding. UK crop production and the natural environment are vulnerable to changes that will occur through climate change over a relatively short time scale. These changes will provide both constraints and opportunities. Farming and environmental management practices will need to adapt to meet these changes. It is predictable that new pest and disease pressures (both positive and negative) will be experienced for existing and novel crops and for native plant species. Social and economic impact studies have rarely been conducted on plant diseases in the UK.

A good exemplar to study these issues is the UK oilseed rape industry. The reasons for choosing this commodity are; the crop is susceptible to a wide range of pathogens; the industry is changing due to demand for biofuel production; high levels of energy/inputs are required currently to grow the crop successfully. This studentship will link with a recently awarded RELU project (led by University of Warwick involving CSL and CCRJ) and a Defra funded project on soil microbial biodiversity of oilseed rape crops (University of Warwick).